Continued Emergence and Evolution of Omicron in South Africa: New BA.4 and BA.5 lineages

South Africas fourth COVID-19 wave was driven predominantly by three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and comparable to BA.2 except for the addition of 69-70del, L452R, F486V and the wild type amino acid at Q493. The 69-70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure with the TaqPath COVID-19 qPCR assay. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa from the first week of April 2022 onwards. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimate growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% CI: 0.07 - 0.09) and 0.12 (95% CI: 0.09 - 0.15) per day respectively over BA.2 in South Africa.

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance.

Investment in Africa over the past year with regards to SARS-CoV-2 genotyping has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, exceeding 100,000 genomes generated to track the pandemic on the continent. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries able to sequence within their own borders, coupled with a decrease in sequencing turnaround time. Findings from this genomic surveillance underscores the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic but we observe repeated dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 variants within the continent. Sustained investment for genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve, particularly in the low vaccination landscape. These investments are very crucial for preparedness and response for future pathogen outbreaks. One-Sentence SummaryExpanding Africa SARS-CoV-2 sequencing capacity in a fast evolving pandemic.

Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in southern Africa has been characterised by three distinct waves. The first was associated with a mix of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, whilst the second and third waves were driven by the Beta and Delta variants respectively1-3. In November 2021, genomic surveillance teams in South Africa and Botswana detected a new SARS-CoV-2 variant associated with a rapid resurgence of infections in Gauteng Province, South Africa. Within three days of the first genome being uploaded, it was designated a variant of concern (Omicron) by the World Health Organization and, within three weeks, had been identified in 87 countries. The Omicron variant is exceptional for carrying over 30 mutations in the spike glycoprotein, predicted to influence antibody neutralization and spike function4. Here, we describe the genomic profile and early transmission dynamics of Omicron, highlighting the rapid spread in regions with high levels of population immunity.

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection and intra-host evolution in association with advanced HIV infection

While most people effectively clear SARS-CoV-2, there are several reports of prolonged infection in immunosuppressed individuals. Here we present a case of prolonged infection of greater than 6 months with shedding of high titter SARS-CoV-2 in an individual with advanced HIV and antiretroviral treatment failure. Through whole genome sequencing at multiple time-points, we demonstrate the early emergence of the E484K substitution associated with escape from neutralizing antibodies, followed by other escape mutations and the N501Y substitution found in most variants of concern. This provides support to the hypothesis of intra-host evolution as one mechanism for the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with immune evasion properties.

A year of genomic surveillance reveals how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolded in Africa

The progression of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Africa has so far been heterogeneous and the full impact is not yet well understood. Here, we describe the genomic epidemiology using a dataset of 8746 genomes from 33 African countries and two overseas territories. We show that the epidemics in most countries were initiated by importations, predominantly from Europe, which diminished following the early introduction of international travel restrictions. As the pandemic progressed, ongoing transmission in many countries and increasing mobility led to the emergence and spread within the continent of many variants of concern and interest, such as B.1.351, B.1.525, A.23.1 and C.1.1. Although distorted by low sampling numbers and blind-spots, the findings highlight that Africa must not be left behind in the global pandemic response, otherwise it could become a breeding ground for new variants.

A novel variant of interest of SARS-CoV-2 with multiple spike mutations is identified from travel surveillance in Africa

At the end of 2020, the Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) detected a SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) in South Africa (501Y.V2 or PANGO lineage B.1.351)1. 501Y.V2 is associated with increased transmissibility and resistance to neutralizing antibodies elicited by natural infection and vaccination2,3. 501Y.V2 has since spread to over 50 countries around the world and has contributed to a significant resurgence of the epidemic in southern Africa. In order to rapidly characterize the spread of this and other emerging VOCs and variants of interest (VOIs), NGS-SA partnered with the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and the African Society of Laboratory Medicine through the Africa Pathogen Genomics Initiative to strengthen SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance across the region.

The emergence and ongoing convergent evolution of the N501Y lineages coincides with a major global shift in the SARS-CoV-2 selective landscape

The emergence and rapid rise in prevalence of three independent SARS-CoV-2 "501Y lineages, B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1, in the last three months of 2020 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 to adapt to both rising population immunity, and public health interventions such as vaccines and social distancing. Viruses giving rise to the different 501Y lineages have, presumably under intense natural selection following a shift in host environment, independently acquired multiple unique and convergent mutations. As a consequence, all have gained epidemiological and immunological properties that will likely complicate the control of COVID-19. Here, by examining patterns of mutations that arose in SARS-CoV-2 genomes during the pandemic we find evidence of a major change in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes and gene segments (such as S, nsp2 and nsp6), that likely coincided with the emergence of the 501Y lineages. In addition to involving continuing sequence diversification, we find evidence that a significant portion of the ongoing adaptive evolution of the 501Y lineages also involves further convergence between the lineages. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring how members of these known 501Y lineages, and others still undiscovered, are convergently evolving similar strategies to ensure their persistence in the face of mounting infection and vaccine induced host immune recognition.

PCR assay to enhance global surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that may increase transmissibility and/or cause escape from immune responses1-3, there is an urgent need for the targeted surveillance of circulating lineages. It was found that the B.1.1.7 (also 501Y.V1) variant first detected in the UK4,5 could be serendipitously detected by the ThermoFisher TaqPath COVID-19 PCR assay because a key deletion in these viruses, spike {Delta}69-70, would cause a "spike gene target failure" (SGTF) result. However, a SGTF result is not definitive for B.1.1.7, and this assay cannot detect other variants of concern that lack spike {Delta}69-70, such as B.1.351 (also 501Y.V2) detected in South Africa6 and P.1 (also 501Y.V3) recently detected in Brazil7. We identified a deletion in the ORF1a gene (ORF1a {Delta}3675-3677) in all three variants, which has not yet been widely detected in other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Using ORF1a {Delta}3675-3677 as the primary target and spike {Delta}69-70 to differentiate, we designed and validated an open source PCR assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern8. Our assay can be rapidly deployed in laboratories around the world to enhance surveillance for the local emergence spread of B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.

High Resolution analysis of Transmission Dynamics of Sars-Cov-2 in Two Major Hospital Outbreaks in South Africa Leveraging Intrahost Diversity

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes acute, highly transmissible respiratory infection in both humans and wide range of animal species. Its rapid spread globally and devasting effects have resulted into a major public health emergency prompting the need for methodological interventions to understand and control its spread. In particular, The ability to effectively retrace its transmission pathways in outbreaks remains a major challenge. This is further exacerbated by our limited understanding of its underlying evolutionary mechanism. Using NGS whole-genome data, we determined whether inter- and intra-host diversity coupled with bottleneck analysis can retrace the pathway of viral transmission in two epidemiologically well characterised nosocomial outbreaks in healthcare settings supported by phylogenetic analysis. Additionally, we assessed the mutational landscape, selection pressure and diversity of the identified variants. Our findings showed evidence of intrahost variant transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 after infection These observations were consistent with the results from the bottleneck analysis suggesting that certain intrahost variants in this study could have been transmitted to recipients. In both outbreaks, we observed iSNVs and SNVs shared by putative source-recipients pairs. Majority of the observed iSNVs were positioned in the S and ORF1ab region. AG, CT and TC nucleotide changes were enriched across SARS-COV-2 genome. Moreover, SARS-COV-2 genome had limited diversity in some loci while being highly conserved in others. Overall, Our findings show that the synergistic effect of combining withinhost diversity and bottleneck estimations greatly enhances resolution of transmission events in Sars-Cov-2 outbreaks. They also provide insight into the genome diversity suggesting purifying selection may be involved in the transmission. Together these results will help in developing strategies to elucidate transmission events and curtail the spread of Sars-Cov-2

Whole Genome Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2: Adapting Illumina Protocols for Quick and Accurate Outbreak Investigation During a Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic spread very fast around the world. A few days after the first detected case in South Africa, an infection started a large hospital outbreak in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal. Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes can be used to trace the path of transmission within a hospital. It can also identify the source of the outbreak and provide lessons to improve infection prevention and control strategies. In this manuscript, we outline the obstacles we encountered in order to genotype SARS-CoV-2 in real-time during an urgent outbreak investigation. In this process, we encountered problems with the length of the original genotyping protocol, reagent stockout and sample degradation and storage. However, we managed to set up three different library preparation methods for sequencing in Illumina. We also managed to decrease the hands on library preparation time from twelve to three hours, which allowed us to complete the outbreak investigation in just a few weeks. We also fine-tuned a simple bioinformatics workflow for the assembly of high-quality genomes in real-time. In order to allow other laboratories to learn from our experience, we released all of the library preparation and bioinformatics protocols publicly and distributed them to other laboratories of the South African Network for Genomics Surveillance (SANGS) consortium.

Early transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa: An epidemiological and phylogenetic report

BackgroundThe emergence of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in December 2019, progressed to become a world pandemic in a few months and reached South Africa at the beginning of March. To investigate introduction and understand the early transmission dynamics of the virus, we formed the South African Network for Genomics Surveillance of COVID (SANGS_COVID), a network of ten government and university laboratories. Here, we present the first results of this effort, which is a molecular epidemiological study of the first twenty-one SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes sampled in the first port of entry, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), during the first month of the epidemic. By combining this with calculations of the effective reproduction number (R), we aim to shed light on the patterns of infections that define the epidemic in South Africa. MethodsR was calculated using positive cases and deaths from reports provided by the four major provinces. Molecular epidemiology investigation involved sequencing viral genomes from patients in KZN using ARCTIC protocols and assembling whole genomes using meticulous alignment methods. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian trees, lineage classification and molecular clock calculations. FindingsThe epidemic in South Africa has been very heterogeneous. Two of the largest provinces, Gauteng, home of the two large metropolis Johannesburg and Pretoria, and KwaZulu-Natal, home of the third largest city in the country Durban, had a slow growth rate on the number of detected cases. Whereas, Western Cape, home of Cape Town, and the Eastern Cape provinces the epidemic is spreading fast. Our estimates of transmission potential for South Africa suggest a decreasing transmission potential towards R=1 since the first cases and deaths have been reported. However, between 06 May and 18 May 2020, we estimate that R was on average 1.39 (1.04-2.15, 95% CI). We also demonstrate that early transmission in KZN, and most probably in all main regions of SA, was associated with multiple international introductions and dominated by lineages B1 and B. The study also provides evidence for locally acquired infections in a hospital in Durban within the first month of the epidemic, which inflated early mortality in KZN. InterpretationThis first report of SANGS_COVID consortium focuses on understanding the epidemic heterogeneity and introduction of SARS-CoV-2 strains in the first month of the epidemic in South Africa. The early introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in KZN included caused a localized outbreak in a hospital, provides potential explanations for the initially high death rates in the province. The current high rate of transmission of COVID-19 in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape highlights the crucial need to strength local genomic surveillance in South Africa. FundingUKZN Flagship Program entitled: Afrocentric Precision Approach to Control Health Epidemic, by a research Flagship grant from the South African Medical Research Council (MRC-RFA-UFSP-01- 2013/UKZN HIVEPI, by the the Technology Innovation Agency and the the Department of Science and Innovation and by National Human Genome Re- search Institute of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number U24HG006941. H3ABioNet is an initiative of the Human Health and Heredity in Africa Consortium (H3Africa). Research in context Evidence before this studyWe searched PubMed, BioRxiv and MedRxiv for reports on epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis using whole genome sequencing (WGS) of SARS-CoV-2. We used the following keywords: SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, 2019-nCoV or novel coronavirus and transmission genomics, epidemiology, phylogenetic or reproduction number. Our search identified an important lack of molecular epidemiology studies in the southern hemisphere, with only a few reports from Latin America and one in Africa. In other early transmission reports on SARS-CoV-2 infections in Africa, authors focused on transmission dynamics, but molecular and phylogenetic methods were missing. Added value of this studyWith a growing sampling bias in the study of transmission genomics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, it is important for us to report high-quality whole genome sequencing (WGS) of local SARS-CoV-2 samples and in-depth phylogenetic analyses of the first month of infection in South-Africa. In our molecular epidemiological investigation, we identify the early transmission routes of the infection in the KZN and report thirteen distinct introductions from many locations and a cluster of localized transmission linked to a healthcare setting that caused most of the initial deaths in South Africa. Furthermore, we formed a national consortium in South Africa, funded by the Department of Science and Innovation and the South African Medical Research Council, to capacitate ten local laboratories to produce and analyse SARS-CoV-2 data in near real time. Implications of all the available evidenceThe COVID-19 pandemic is progressing around the world and in Africa. Early transmission genomics and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 throw light on the early stages of the epidemic in a given region. This facilitates the investigation of localized outbreaks and serves to inform public health responses in South Africa.